A Statistical Model for Shutdowns due to Air Quality Control for a Copper Production Decision Support System

Abstract

Background: In the mid-1990s, a decision support system for copper production was developed for one of the largest mining companies in Australia. The research was conducted by scientists from the largest Australian research center and involved the use of simulation to analyze options to increase production of a copper production facility. Objectives: We describe a statistical model for shutdowns due to air quality control and some of the data analysis conducted during the simulation project. We point to the fact that the simulation was a sophisticated exercise that consisted of many modules and the statistical model for shutdowns was essential for valid simulation runs. Method: The statistical model made use of a full year of data on daily downtimes and used a combination of techniques to generate replications of the data. Results: The study was conducted with a high level of cooperation between the scientists and the mining company. This contributed to the development of accurate estimates for input into a support system with an EXCEL based interface. Conclusion: The environmental conditions affected greatly the operations of the production facility. A good statistical model was essential for the successful simulation and the high budget expansion decision that ensued.